A few months ago I introduced two indices to spot extensions trending up or down: Top Ten Index as Measure of Domain Extension Strength.
While the article presented early results, 2024 sales were incomplete at that time. This article reports data through the end of 2024.
Note that two indices were defined in the earlier article, but I will only be using the median one here.
I also look at additional extensions, using data from my year-end analyses to suggest extensions worthy of study:
Why A New Index?
There are various ways you can look at the domain name market, either globally or by extension:
- One could look at number of sales. but that is a really poor indicator, at least if using NameBio data. as the vast majority of reported sales are wholesale acquisitions, from places like expired auctions, rather than retail sales to end users.
- Average price is also a very poor indicator because of the mixed wholesale-retail population.
- Number of high value sales can be a worthwhile indicator. I do report that data in the annual reports (e.g. Top 100 NameBio-Listed Domain Sales of 2024), as well as the extensions mentioned in the top 100 reported sales.
- Total dollar volume is a better measure, since it tends to be dominated by the retail sales. Retail represents a minority of the number of reported sales, but a majority of the total dollar volume, in most cases. That is why it is the main indicator I report in my annual look at domain name sales, e.g. 2024 Domain Name Market Volume Trends. The one problem with using dollar volumes is that a few significant outlier sales can have a big impact.
If we seek an indicator of strong retail sales, I think the case can be made to look predominantly at the high-end of the market. If the high end is strong, odds are the overall aftermarket is doing well. But I wanted to not let one huge sale overly influence results, so I decided to use the median value of the top 10 sales, in that extension, for each year. I call this the Median Top 10 Index, and explain how to calculate it in the next section.
Calculating the Median Top 10 Index for an Extension
The Median Top 10 Index will normally be computed for a particular extension and year. If you have a membership at NameBio, even at Collector or Domainer level, it is fast to get the data needed for the calculation. Here are the steps:
- After signing into NameBio, set the Extension and Date Range. Normally that will be one of the years from the pull down list.
- Do not enter a name in the Search box, or other parameters like a price range or pattern, just leave blank. Press the Search to generate results.
- Unless already presented in decreasing price order, press the Price in the header with Search Results. Repeated pressing will switch from ascending to descending order – you want descending, i.e. the top prices first.
- In Results select 10 records per page – the default is normally that. From the 10 sales reported count down and take the average the the fifth and the sixth value, which will represent the median of the top 10 sales in that extension for the year. Record the value.
- Switch to a new year, leaving extension unchanged, and repeat the process, eventually covering the period of interest.
- If studying more than one extension. change the extension, and then repeat the steps.
It is important to understand how the Median Top 10 value depends on a list of sales values, and I explain that with a hypothetical example below.
The Median Top 10 is obtained by the midpoint between the 5th and 6th of the 10 highest-price domain name sales for the year. This shows the value (Median 10) for six hypothetical distributions. Note that the value does not depend on the specific highest sales values (e.g. case D). Also, if there are not at least 6 sales, then there will not be a median value for the top 10 (Case E), even though there are a few sales.
Summarizing aspects of the Median Top 10:
- A very high-value outlier sale has no impact on the Top 10 Median value. See Case D.
- Even a couple of high-value sales, will still have no impact, see Case C.
- With 5 or fewer sales, no nonzero median of the top 10 sales exists (Case E).
- A distribution with many moderate value sales can have a higher median than one with a high outlier but other sales lower (Cases A, B).
- The Median Top 10 reflects if there are multiple strong sales in an extension, but is not impacted by the specific highest values.
Use To Predict Trends – .IO Results
In my early work on the Median Top 10, I discovered that several extensions, now regarded as high-value, had multiple years of modest but consistent growth in the Median Top 10 index. For example, I present the values for the .IO extension below.
From 2014 through 2020 the top sales of .IO were modest, but the median of the top 10 sales grew year by year. Then in 2021 high-value sales in the extension took off.
It seems that the slow consistent growth in this indicator could have predicted major sales in subsequent years.
.COM Reference
I wondered if the index could also be useful to see if the top end of a long-established extension is still growing or decreasing. Below are the results for .COM. We see that overall it is fairly constant over many years, with the 2021 domain boom the only exception.
.NET Updated
I had presented .NET results in the first article, but here is the data updated through the end of 2024.
.AI Median Top 10
When we add in sales through to the end of 2024, the top end of the market for .AI continues to grow, although not at the same relative leap we saw in 2023.
For this extension, From 2015 through 2022 the top sales were modest, but there was a pattern of consistent year-to-year growth, as we saw for .io. An astute investor could have read the signals in that pattern for a subsequent major rise, as we saw in 2023. Of course in .AI it was the Open AI release of Chat GPT that pushed interest in .ai domain names.
.XYZ Irregularity
The case for .XYZ is complex. In the early years, the registry sales of high-value short names pushed high Median Top 10 values. Then the penny registration program largely killed the aftermarket for a few years. Starting in 2020, the top of the market grew, explosively in 2022, and has remained strong since then.
Bet on .BET?
I mentioned in 2024 Domain Name Market Volume Trends that .BET had a strong 2024 in terms of dollar sales volume. The last three years have produced strong growth in the Median Top 10 Index.
Regulatory changes helped drive interest in this extension.
The .APP Pattern
The .APP extension had a period of strong and consistent growth in the index, although now the extension has reached a more stable pattern. .APP is routinely, along with .XYZ, one of the strongest new extensions.
The .NETWORK Results
Other indicators indicate recent strength in .NETWORK, so I wanted to see the pattern in Median Top 10.
.GG Pattern Hard To Interpret
The .GG extension, repurposed for gaming, has long been a darling of some domain investors. The Median Top 10 is not easy to interpret for this extension, with steady growth from 2017 through 2021, then a drop. I don’t know the .gg extension well enough. It should be noted that the dollar volume trend in the extension is not completely consistent with the median index.
Final Thoughts
It must be kept in mind that many retail sales do not end up reported in NameBio. If there is a systematic change, for example a major seller in an extension starting or stopping reporting private sales, then it could skew results.
I would not depend only on the median top 10 index as an indicator, but I think taken along with trends in dollar volume, the index can help to spot extensions possibly trending up, or down. Keep in mind it is consistent growth that seems more important than actual dollar values in the early years.
I have maxed out the number of allowed image attachments for this article, but may publish in the comments below additional results for other extensions I analyzed.
News Source:Bob Hawkes，This article does not represent our position.
